Record Surplus as Exports and Imports Beat Forecasts
China’s trade surplus climbed to a new record for the combined January to February period, as exports far exceeded expectations and imports also accelerated, according to customs data released Wednesday. China reports the first two months together to reduce distortions caused by the shifting Lunar New Year holiday.
The trade balance widened to $213.62 billion, above the $179.6 billion expected in a Reuters poll. Exports rose 21.8% year over year in the combined period, sharply ahead of the 7.1% forecast. Imports increased 19.8%, also beating expectations for 6.3% growth.
Trade Shifts Away From the U.S. Toward Europe and ASEAN
The report also showed a notable divergence across trading partners. Trade with the United States fell 16.9% to 609.71 billion yuan (about $88.22 billion) from a year earlier. At the same time, commerce with other regions strengthened. Trade with the European Union rose 19.9% to 998.94 billion yuan, while trade with ASEAN increased 20.3% to 1.24 trillion yuan.
The figures underline how China’s external sector remains a key support even as U.S. China trade remains under pressure and supply chains continue to reorient.
Inflation Surprise and Policy Read-Through
The trade data followed a fresh inflation surprise. China’s consumer price index rose 1.3% in February from a year earlier, above forecasts for 0.8%, after a 0.2% rise in January. Some analysts attributed part of the jump to timing effects from this year’s later Lunar New Year holiday, though they said holiday timing alone may not fully explain the strength.
Economist Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management said the combination of strong exports and a relatively restrained growth objective suggests Beijing may not rush to add near-term stimulus. At China’s annual Two Sessions meetings, Premier Li Qiang set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5%, the lowest range since the early 1990s.
Tariffs Still Shape the U.S. China Outlook
The release lands against a backdrop of ongoing U.S. China trade friction. U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods currently sit at a broad 10% level after the Supreme Court struck down a set of duties imposed under emergency powers. However, separate and earlier tariffs under Section 301 and Section 232 remain in place on some products and can reach as high as 100%, keeping the effective tariff burden elevated across parts of bilateral trade.
