Digital Sales Set to Grow Despite Slower Pace
Online holiday spending in the United States is projected to reach $253.4 billion this season, marking a 5.3% year-over-year increase, according to a new report from Adobe Analytics. While that represents continued growth, it is slower than the 8.7% rise seen last year. Adobe’s data, which measures over one trillion retail website visits and 100 million product listings, shows that the 2024 season will still fall below the 10-year average annual growth rate of about 13%.
The surge in online activity during the pandemic, when e-commerce sales jumped 32% in 2020, has set a high bar for year-over-year comparisons. Yet, consumer enthusiasm for discounts and festive purchases remains a strong driver of online shopping, even as the broader economy faces uncertainty.
Consumer Behavior and Spending Trends
Vivek Pandya, Adobe’s director of digital insights, said consumers are showing resilience by continuing to shop for gifts and decorations despite inflation pressures. Many are motivated by holiday traditions and promotional opportunities. He added that shoppers have also developed a habit of stockpiling goods when prices seem unpredictable, helping stabilize spending trends.
Still, higher online spending does not necessarily mean a broader boost for total retail sales. Adobe estimates that roughly one in every four holiday dollars will be spent online this year. Overall retail spending, combining online and in-store purchases, is expected to rise about 4% year over year, below the decade-long average of 5.2%, according to Bain & Company.
Economic Outlook and Consumer Intentions
Despite steady retail performance, concerns about tariffs and declining consumer confidence have tempered expectations. A PwC survey found that Americans plan to spend about 5% less overall on gifts, travel, and entertainment, averaging $1,552 per person. The decline is led largely by Gen Z respondents, who said they expect to reduce their holiday spending by 23% compared with last year.
Adobe forecasts that Cyber Week—spanning from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday—will generate $43.7 billion in online sales, or about 17.2% of the season’s total. Discount levels are expected to mirror last year’s, with slight decreases in certain categories. Electronics may see discounts of up to 28%, down from 30.1%, while toys could peak at 27% off compared to 28% the previous year.
Mobile and AI to Shape Shopping Habits
Mobile devices are expected to dominate digital shopping, accounting for 56.1% of all online purchases—up sharply from 40% in 2020. Shoppers are also increasingly using generative AI tools to research and select products. Adobe anticipates AI-driven traffic to rise by more than 520% year over year, especially in the days leading up to Thanksgiving.
As technology becomes further integrated into consumer behavior, this year’s holiday season may highlight not only how Americans spend, but also how they make their purchasing decisions in an increasingly AI-assisted retail landscape.
