Diplomatic rift widens with no off ramp in sight
A major feud between Japan and China is escalating, with Beijing attempting to isolate Tokyo on the world stage following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent comments suggesting Japan could view a Chinese blockade of Taiwan as a threat requiring military action. China has approached leaders in the United States, the United Kingdom and France to rally support for its position, arguing that Taiwan’s “return” is part of the post war international order. President Trump made no mention of the Taiwan issue after his call with Xi Jinping, despite China using the discussion to restate its claims.
China’s pressure campaign now spans diplomacy, economics and culture. Beijing has lodged protests with the United Nations, halted seafood imports from Japan, discouraged Chinese tourists from visiting, and suspended cultural events such as concerts and film screenings. Analysts say that while Japan and China often undergo political friction, the current dispute appears more entrenched, with both sides unwilling to back down.
The comment that triggered the backlash
At the center of the dispute are remarks Takaichi made during a parliamentary budget committee session when pressed on whether a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan could qualify as an existential threat to Japan. Under Japan’s 2015 security laws, Tokyo can deploy force not only in direct self defense but also if an attack on an ally poses such a threat. Takaichi suggested a blockade involving Chinese warships could fall into that category, prompting sharp criticism from opposition lawmakers and immediate pushback from Beijing.
China views her statement as a departure from strategic ambiguity and an implicit willingness to intervene militarily. Tsinghua University’s Zhou Bo called the comment a “costly mistake,” arguing it suggested Japan might act independently of the United States in a Taiwan crisis — something he considers militarily unrealistic. Although Takaichi has since promised not to comment on hypothetical conflict scenarios, she defended her attempt at candor under parliamentary pressure.
Why China pressures Japan, not the U.S.
China’s response contrasts sharply with its treatment of Washington, despite President Biden previously making similar unscripted commitments to Taiwan’s defense. Experts say Beijing chooses not to confront the U.S. as directly because it does not wish to provoke a stronger power, whereas Japan is seen as more vulnerable to diplomatic and economic pressure.
At the same time, the episode has heightened anxiety in Tokyo. Some Japanese analysts fear President Trump could strike a deal with China that leaves Taiwan — and by extension Japan — exposed. While the Japanese government denies that Trump cautioned Tokyo against escalating tensions, uncertainty over U.S. policy adds to Japan’s concerns.
Long cycles in the relationship, but no quick fix now
Historically, China Japan relations have gone through repeated downturns and recoveries. Analysts note that China’s current response is more controlled than during the 2012 Senkaku Islands dispute, when nationwide protests and boycotts erupted across China. Beijing is now far less tolerant of mass demonstrations that could turn against the state.
Still, China insists that Takaichi retract her remarks, something she has refused to do. Because Beijing considers Taiwan central to its national identity and historical grievances, experts expect the standoff to persist. In past disputes, China has often waited for a change in leadership in the other country to restart relations, but Takaichi only recently took office — meaning a long freeze is possible.
