Payroll Growth Surprises to the Upside
The U.S. economy delivered a stronger-than-expected burst of hiring in September, according to long-delayed figures released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000, a sharp turnaround from the revised loss of 4,000 jobs in August and well above the consensus expectation of 50,000. July’s total also was revised lower, reflecting a year defined by persistent recalculations and uneven trends.
The unemployment rate inched higher to 4.4 percent, the highest level since late 2021. A broader measure of underemployment dipped slightly to 8 percent. Wage growth moderated, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2 percent in the month and 3.8 percent compared with a year earlier.
Delayed Data Complicates the Outlook
This report ends a stretch in which no labor market data were released due to the record 44 day government shutdown. The freeze also affected the Bureau of Economic Analysis and other statistical agencies. As a result, Thursday’s release provides a retroactive snapshot of conditions two months ago rather than a real time signal of current labor momentum.
Economists noted that the shifting numbers reflect both resilience and uncertainty. “September’s jobs report shows the labor market still had resilience before the shutdown, beating payroll expectations, but the picture remains muddy with August jobs revised to a job loss and the unemployment rate increasing,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor.
Stock futures strengthened after the report, while Treasury yields moved lower. Traders continued to lean toward the view that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its December meeting, the last before policymakers receive the next batch of employment data.
Sector Trends Show Uneven Hiring
Health care once again led job creation with 43,000 new positions, closely matching its steady pace throughout the year. Restaurants and bars added 37,000, and social assistance contributed 14,000. By contrast, transportation and warehousing shed 25,000 jobs, and the federal government lost 3,000, bringing its total contraction for the year to 97,000. Professional and business services fell by 20,000, driven in part by a reduction of 16,000 temporary help roles.
A separate report showed initial jobless claims falling to 220,000 for the week ending Nov. 15, underscoring the still historically low levels of layoffs despite broader economic uncertainty.
Household Survey Signals Solid Engagement
The household survey, which determines the unemployment rate, indicated an even more robust picture. Employment rose by 251,000 while the labor force expanded by 470,000 to a record 171.2 million. Participation climbed to 62.4 percent, marking its highest level since May.
Full time employment surged by 673,000, offsetting a drop of 573,000 in part time work. The figures suggest that workers are continuing to find stable positions even as businesses remain cautious about large scale hiring.
Fed Faces a Complex December Decision
With limited data available in recent months, Federal Reserve officials have had to navigate an unusually uncertain landscape. They delivered rate cuts in both September and October but acknowledged the risks and the absence of their usual indicators. Minutes from the October meeting indicated hesitation toward cutting again in December.
The BLS will next release combined October and November payroll numbers on December 16. Due to the shutdown, the October report will not contain an unemployment rate, leaving policymakers with one more partial dataset before year end.
