Oil shock fears build around Strait of Hormuz supply route
Canadian motorists are seeing fuel costs rise as escalating tensions in the Middle East push energy markets into a more fragile state. Analysts say the risk is not limited to headline moves in crude prices. The larger concern is whether the conflict disrupts exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor that channels about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
Oil prices continued climbing Tuesday, with Brent briefly moving above US$84 per barrel. That level was described as more than a $10 increase from when the conflict began, reinforcing expectations that higher wholesale energy prices will filter into Canadian pump prices with a lag that can vary by region and local supply conditions.
Atlantic Canada sees overnight spikes led by Halifax and Cape Breton
In Atlantic Canada, the increases were visible early Wednesday. In the Halifax area, the price of regular self-serve gasoline rose by 8.9 cents overnight, putting the minimum price at 147.7 cents per litre Wednesday morning. In Cape Breton, the new price for regular self-serve gasoline was 149.6 cents per litre.
In Prince Edward Island, some locations recorded increases of 6.9 cents for regular self-serve gasoline. In New Brunswick, prices were unchanged as of Wednesday morning, with the maximum price holding at 142 cents per litre.
Quebec prices diverge across the Montreal region
In Quebec, market watchers described prices as trending higher while noting uncertainty about how persistent the move could be. Data from Essence Montreal showed the lowest price per litre in the Montreal region at $1.39 at some stations in Brossard and Laval on Wednesday.
At the higher end, prices on the Island of Montreal reached $1.62 per litre at one station in Anjou, illustrating how quickly pricing can spread across a city depending on station location, competition, and supply timing.
Ontario faces new increases with more expected in Toronto and Ottawa
Ontario motorists also saw sharp moves. In Toronto, prices jumped overnight to $1.439 per litre. Analysts cited in the report expected another increase of about six cents on Thursday.
In Ottawa, some forecasts pointed to a larger two-day rise. One expert told CTV News Ottawa that prices could increase six cents per litre on Wednesday to $1.449, with an additional three-cent increase possible on Thursday. In London, hikes began overnight and by midday Wednesday, regular gasoline was reported as high as $1.44 per litre.
Prairie outlook turns to crude trajectory and potential 20-cent impact
In Saskatchewan, analysts said drivers should prepare for further increases if crude continues to climb. Gas price analyst Dan McTeague said he expects oil prices to keep rising and outlined a scenario where an additional $20 per barrel increase could translate into about a $0.20-per-litre jump in gasoline prices. For diesel, he said the impact could be larger, in the range of $0.35 to $0.40 per litre.
Alberta remains lower priced but sees rapid moves in the south
Southern Alberta has also been hit by a noticeable jump. In Lethbridge, prices were reported up by about 10 cents since the weekend, with the average price on Wednesday at $1.25 per litre.
Even after the increase, Lethbridge remained below the Alberta provincial average, which was reported at $1.31 per litre. That gap suggests regional differences in supply and retail competition can still cushion some communities, even during broad commodity-driven moves.
Analysts said the next direction for Canadian pump prices will depend on whether crude stays elevated and whether shipping risks around Hormuz ease or intensify. For households and small businesses, the immediate impact is higher weekly fuel costs, while the broader concern is that sustained energy inflation could feed into transport costs and consumer prices beyond the gas station.
