Shutdown Ends After 43 Days, but Key Indicators May Never Be Released
The federal government began reopening Thursday after President Donald Trump signed a House-approved funding bill late Wednesday, ending the record 43-day shutdown. Yet the White House warned that the economic fallout could linger well beyond the political stalemate, as vital inflation and jobs data skipped during the shutdown may be permanently lost.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the missed data could leave Federal Reserve officials “flying blind” ahead of crucial decisions on December interest rate cuts. “The Democrats may have permanently damaged the Federal Statistical System with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released,” she told reporters.
The shutdown, which began on October 1, stemmed from clashes over federal spending and the future of Affordable Care Act premium subsidies, which expire at the end of 2025. The Senate is expected to vote on the matter next month as part of the newly passed funding package.
BLS Furloughs Mean October CPI and Jobs Report May Be Gone for Good
As agencies restart operations, the White House says the October Consumer Price Index and official jobs report may never be published. Staff at the Bureau of Labor Statistics were furloughed throughout October, leaving them unable to conduct the surveys required to produce the monthly indicators.
If confirmed, this would be the first time in U.S. history that monthly CPI or employment data were missed — a break in records going back more than a century. The Current Population Survey, which has been conducted monthly since 1948, was unable to gather data from its usual sample of 60,000 households.
“For the first time in over 900 months, the CPS may not gather monthly information,” warned Friends of BLS, an independent coalition of statistical and business groups. The CPI series, published since 1921, is also at risk of a permanent gap.
Fed Still Expected to Cut Rates, but Uncertainty Is Rising
Despite the data void, most economists still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on December 10. A Reuters poll of 105 economists found that 80% anticipate a quarter-point cut, which would bring rates to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% — the third consecutive reduction.
The Fed lowered rates in October despite missing government data, with Chair Jerome Powell citing signs of a cooling labor market and moderating inflation. Some analysts expect this trend to continue. “The labor market still looks relatively weak,” said Abigail Watt, U.S. economist at UBS. “That’s one of the key reasons why we think the FOMC will continue to deliver that December cut.”
Others caution the Fed may hesitate. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said prices on 55% of CPI-tracked items are rising faster than 3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. “This is the reason why it is difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates in December,” he wrote.
Economic Visibility Clouded Ahead of Critical Policy Decisions
With the shutdown over but crucial data missing, policymakers face an unusual challenge: making rate decisions without the two most important monthly indicators. Economists warn that the absence of October CPI and jobs data could lead to reduced market confidence and weaker visibility into economic conditions.
As agencies work to resume normal operations, the longer-term question persists — how the Fed, markets and lawmakers will navigate a period without key economic benchmarks just weeks before a pivotal policy meeting.
