Jamie Dimon Says a Major Correction Could Hit Within Two Years
Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has issued a stark warning that the likelihood of a U.S. stock market crash is significantly greater than investors currently anticipate. Speaking to the BBC, Dimon said he was “far more worried than others” about a major correction, estimating the probability at around 30%—three times higher than what he believes the market has priced in.
“I would give it a higher probability than I think is probably priced in the market and by others,” Dimon said. “So if the market’s pricing in 10%, I would say it is more like 30%.” He added that multiple factors—from global instability to excessive fiscal spending—are creating an unusually high level of uncertainty that investors seem to underestimate.
Growing Warnings of Market Volatility
Dimon’s comments come amid a wave of concern from economists and central bankers about potential market corrections. The JPMorgan chief pointed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, global rearmament, and unsustainable government deficits as key risks weighing on the economic outlook.
“All these things cause a lot of issues that we don’t know how to answer,” he said. “The level of uncertainty should be higher in most people’s minds than what I would call normal.”
His caution aligns with remarks from International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who this week told the Milken Institute that while the world economy has proven resilient amid President Donald Trump’s trade war, that strength may soon be tested. “Buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal,” she warned, adding that “global resilience has not yet been fully tested.”
AI Valuations Fuel Fears of a Market Bubble
Analysts have increasingly pointed to inflated valuations in artificial intelligence stocks as a possible trigger for future volatility. The Bank of England recently noted a “growing risk of a sudden correction” in global markets, driven by speculative investment in AI and technology firms.
Dimon acknowledged that while the transformative potential of AI is undeniable, investor enthusiasm could be overextended. “AI is real; AI in total will pay off—just like cars in total paid off, and TVs in total paid off,” he said. “But most people involved in them didn’t do well.” He predicted that a significant portion of capital currently flowing into AI ventures could ultimately be lost.
Heightened Caution as Economic Risks Mount
Dimon’s warning adds to a chorus of voices urging caution as global markets face a convergence of pressures: high interest rates, slowing growth, persistent inflation, and geopolitical instability. The veteran banker has previously criticized policymakers for underestimating the impact of rising debt and loose fiscal policy on long-term stability.
For investors, Dimon’s message is clear—markets may be underpricing the true level of risk. As he put it, “uncertainty should be front of mind for everyone in this environment.”
